Covid-19 and Japan in My Perspective

Recently some shopping centers in Japan closes at 8pm in order to prevent corona and my friends have been complaining about how the Japanese government prevents the virus outbreak. By the time this article is written, the Japanese government has announced the re-opening of the schools in April, the postpone of the Tokyo Olympic, and Tokyo lockdown until April. The statistic of infection cases and the number of death in Japan is relatively low. Meaning that Japan is relatively save at the moment, but I beg to differ. However, I should put my disclaimer here that I have nothing against them and this post is based only on my own thoughts without any official sources.

Firstly, one of the largest income sources in Japan is their nature and culture (including the big cities) which attracts tourists from all around the world. From my own baseless observation, the tourists who come to a country mainly come from its neighbors. For example in Japan, mostly the tourists are Chinese, HongKong, Korean, Philipinnes, Vietnamese, Thai, and Taiwanese. Secondly, those tourists arrived in big cities like Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka. From there they will go splurging their money in the cities and maybe countrysides depending on their itinerary. Having a country lockdown means that less tourism all around the world. Lockdown not only happens in Japan, but also the other countries such as Italy, and Saudi Arabia, where the Muslims around the world come to Mecca.

Secondly, most of the workers in Japan moved to big cities as the number of available jobs in those areas is higher. I think it is obvious in any country that the business and IT offices are located in the city center. Thirdly, the tourists are seasonal. Have you ever been to some places that are only good during autumn and spring? Those places are located mostly in the countrysides. In winter and summer, there is nothing to be seen, meaning that the locals have to survive with what they earned during tourist seasons. That's maybe one of the reasons why young people left the countryside for big cities; more job opportunities especially for university graduates. This makes people who live in those cities have to live in a very small apartment and close to each other (do you know how thin the Japanese apartment wall is?). Have you seen how crowded the train station during rush hour in Tokyo and Osaka? That is the best place to spread the virus.

I've heard from my friends that there are job offer cancellation cases since the Covid-19 outbreak. Meaning that some people or students who are going to graduate got their job offer canceled and graduated without a job. Maybe this is not a good thing only in Japan but not the case with any other countries. But let's take a look from the other perspective, why the company decided to cancel the job offer, it rarely happens and this is the first time I heard about this.

If I am the business owner, having a newcomer means I have to spend a little more to earn even more. If a cancellation happened, it could mean several things. One, the company itself is going down, in this case, they have to trim down the expenses in order to save the company. This takes form in closing the door for the new employees to laying off some of their current employees. It is a common thing. Two, at a larger scale, the Japanese economy is somewhat not as good as it might seem. The stagnation of the economy leads the 2% increase of consumption tax which was applied since October 2019. The government did this in order to stimulate the economy. Well, now let's think this way; You are an ordinary citizen living and working in Japan with an 8% tax applied in everything you buy. A 2% increase might not seem too much, but two scenarios might happen in my mind. In the first scenario, you will buy a lot (clothes, books, everything that can be stored for a long time) in the last months before the tax hike [this stimulates the economy for a while of course]. After the tax hike, your spending will just go back to normal. In the second scenario, which is most likely to happen for people who earn just enough to live, is they will not buy as much as they would before the tax hike. Therefore in the long term, these people will live even more frugally. In this second scenario, the plan to stimulate the economy fails.

The next thing is regarding the effect of the Covid-19. This new virus spreads quickly and the incubation time takes up to two weeks before showing any serious symptoms. In addition, this virus is airborne and able to stick to your outwears for several days. This is why it is recommended to clean your body (especially hands) and wash your outfit every time you visited any public areas. So what's the matter about this and Japan? We can say that Japan is a relatively clean country with religiously law-abiding citizens. But let's look at the current situation here. Some offices and schools are closed to prevent the spread. You all also know how hard the Japanese work, some even died because of long working hours. Okay, let's make it a topic for another time. Now, if you have a family with children, this is the best chance to have some great family time, isn't it? Moreover, this is near the hanami season. The places which used to be packed with people to see the cherry blossom will be less crowded due to less visitor from overseas. Perfect family time. The bad thing? It happens nationwide! + virus. Ah, don't forget pollen allergies a.k.a kafunsho.

We know that the virus will easily infect people with a weak immune system. This means the children and elderly people are especially vulnerable. How many children can stay at home for a long time? I'm an introvert, yet I have to admit that when I was a kid, I can't stay inside for a long time. So definitely, going out is necessary. Especially for the elders, speaking from my experience with both my grandmas, they will get bored easily only staying inside the whole month. The chance of getting infected is high. Plus the Japanese have this weird habit, that is they only take bath once, which happens usually in the night time after coming home from work. I'm not saying that cleaning our body will reduce the chance to get infected because you can see in Indonesia where the people mainly take the bath twice a day even has a higher number of infection. So, the best way to get infected is to go outside where the crowd is.

Combining the current situation with the delayed Tokyo 2020, the economy this year looks grim. Even if Japan opens its door for the visitors, the countries all around the world won't let their people go outside their home, let alone to Japan. As we all know the effort that has been done by the government and other institutions in preparing this event. The long-expected revenue, which in fact, delayed makes the economy slowed down even worse. If in fact, the Japanese government is not being transparent in releasing the number of Covid-19 cases due to any reason holds true, then I could expect the inevitable truth will come to the surface by the end of next month. I've heard some cases where the patient with the corona-like symptoms are told to just take rest at home. Again, I don't know if this is true or not, but I am hoping that Japan will do nationwide tests like South Korea.

I will close this speculation of mine with a darker note. The Japanese economy is suffering because of the lack of people in the productive age PLUS the number of elders is significantly higher. This results in the ever-increasing cost to support these people. If the number of elderly people falls, I think it will somehow make the situation a little better for the government. The money used to support the 60+ people can then be used to support children and thus stimulating the people to have kids. Things take time because it is not that easy to persuade people to have children, especially in big cities. You know how expensive the rent is. Do you know what I think, if because of this virus outbreak, Japanese companies start to allow the employees to work from home, it would be great because if that applies, I think many people will move back to the countryside and work from their parent's home or they can rent a cheaper place and save a lot to spend on other kinds of stuff. For people like me who really hate crowds and love the solitude of the hills, it is perfect.